16 Apr 2015

Is April the most violent month?

Revolutionary War

"April is the cruellest month."
At least that's what T.S. Eliot said when he penned "The Waste Land" all the way back in 1922. Maybe the guy wasn't a fan of rain. Or spring. Perhaps the old fella just didn't like paying taxes. Or maybe Eliot had his finger on the pulse of something more sinister that tends to rear its head this time of year.


It's the month when spring blooms, baseball season hits full swing and procrastinators across the U.S. wait until the very last minute to pay Uncle Sam his cash, but April has another, more dubious distinction as perhaps the most violent month of them all.
It wasn't long after the Boston marathon bombings that conspiracy theorists noted that the brutal explosions that killed three people and injured another 264 went off just a few days before the 18th anniversary of the Oklahoma City blasts that killed 168 and injured 500. In the latter attack, bomber Timothy McVeigh said he targeted the Albert P. Murrah federal building for the 1995 bombing as payback for the law enforcement raid on David Koresh's Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas, on the same day two years earlier [sources: Reuters,Grinberg].
That's not to mention a slew of other acts of widespread violence that have made April a bloody month, including shootings at Columbine High School in Colorado in 1999 and Virginia Tech University in 2007. Those two events alone left 45 dead and another 38 injured. Meanwhile, U.S. civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. was gunned down in a Memphis hotel room on a hot April night in 1968, setting off riots across the country that would go on for days [sources: ReutersGrinberg].
So what exactly is it about April that makes the world's terrorist element spring into action?


An April History of Violence

April violence and atrocities are not a new trend. Maybe it's simply a matter of coincidence, but there are a few key historical events that lend credence to idea that bad guys specifically choose the fourth month of the year to strike.
The American Revolution started with gunfire in battles at Lexington and Concord, Mass. on April 19, 1775. It's an important moment in world history that not only signifies the beginning of a brutal war for American independence, but also, for many patriotic folks, represents the revolutionary spirit on which the United States was founded. Across Massachusetts, revelers celebratePatriots Day -- a state holiday -- on the third Monday of the month (the holiday was celebrated on the 19th until 1968). On the other hand, people who view the federal government as oppressive point to the holiday as a reminder that freedom and liberty often have to come at the end of a gun barrel [sources: The History ChannelGrinberg].
The original Patriots Day isn't the only edition of the holiday to have been marked with bloodshed. In the case of the Oklahoma City bombing -- and some say the Columbine shootings -- April 19 also held particular significance for another reason: the Waco raid anniversary. The federal meddling that led to the botched raid and the deaths of 76 people, the thinking goes, is exactly the same as the tyranny that American patriots fought to repel three centuries ago. In 2013, Patriots Day again turned violent when two pressure cooker bombs went off near the Boston Marathon finish line [sources: Grinberg,Fantz].
Another April 19 event often cited by militants as a basis for armed resistance is the 1943 Warsaw ghetto uprising in which outgunned and undermanned Polish Jews unsuccessfully revolted against Nazi troops planning to liquidate a large portion of the city. Meanwhile, neo-Nazis and other hate groups observe Hitler's birthday just one day later, on April 20 [sources: BerkesPBS].
So now malcontents and copycats have a handful of reasons for looking to do carnage in mid- to late April. But do they actually target April for violence, or is the connection much ado about nothing?

Numbers Don't Lie


Terrorism by foreign and domestic perpetrators happens in the U.S. and elsewhere around the globe at various times throughout the year. The 9/11 attacks occurred in the fall. Shoe bomber Richard Reid tried to blow up a plane in December 2001. The 1996 Olympic bombing in Atlanta happened in the middle of summer. In the U.S., more mass shootings have taken place in December (eight) than April (six) since 1980. In 2012, for example, the shootings in Newtown, Conn. (December) and Aurora, Colo. (July) happened at other times of the year [sources: PappasFollman].Just because there have been several notable, high-profile acts of violence to go down in April over the years doesn't mean there is actually more violence come spring than during other months. Skeptics sayconspiracy theorists are simply looking for patterns that aren't really there.
So why all the fuss about April upheaval? Some experts say it's because people need a way to explain unthinkable, horrific events. Confirmation bias is the term scientists and statisticians use to describe the tendency to look for and interpret information that substantiates already held beliefs while turning a blind eye to anything that doesn't jibe [sources: Escobedo,Science Daily].
On the other hand, maybe it's something as simple as following the sun. Research shows that violent crime goes up with increased temperature, to a certain point (about 80 degrees Fahrenheit or 27 degrees Celsius). April is about the time when the frost starts to come off the pumpkin in many parts of the world, including Boston, but it's not yet hot [source: Keim].
Whether or not you believe there's a trend, the number of prominent acts of violence that have occurred in Aprils past is at least a bit curious and at most utterly horrifying.

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